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HomeMy WebLinkAboutLSP Addendum - Appendix B: GHG Inventory and Forecast MemoGREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY AND FORECAST MEMORANDUM Introduction This memorandum provides an overview of Lindenville’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by sector that are estimated to be emitted. The five emissions sectors that are included in this report are residential and nonresidential energy, transportation, solid waste, and water. Additionally, a GHG forecast was prepared based on the projected growth of the Lindenville area for the horizon year 2040. This report presents a detailed summary of the 2019 existing GHG emissions and forecasted growth and emissions for 2040. The City’s General Plan sets a vision for Lindenville that aims to preserve small businesses and legacy industrial uses while creating a vibrant and inclusive neighborhood with opportunities for new housing development, improved mobility options, new green spaces, and increased access to public services. The City developed and adopted a Climate Action Plan (CAP) along with the General Plan to help mitigate the climate impacts of continued growth. The CAP contains GHG reduction strategies related to energy use, the construction and operation of buildings, transportation, solid waste diversion, and water use, which can be applied to development in Lindenville. 2019 Lindenville GHG Inventory Lindenville’s total emissions were estimated to be 94,266 Metric Tons of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (MTCO2e) in 2019. Emissions from calendar year 2019 were inventoried to remain consistent with General Plan and the Lindenville Specific Plan baseline analyses. Table 1 provides the breakdown of 2019 GHG emissions in Lindenville by sector. Transportation emissions account for 59% of total emissions followed by nonresidential energy use, which account for 29% of emissions. In 2019 there was no housing in Lindenville and thus no emissions related to residential energy use. Solid Waste accounted for 12% of emissions and water use <1%. Figure 1 depicts the proportion of emissions by sector in 2019. LINDENVILLE SPECIFIC PLAN Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Forecast / 2 Table 1: Total Lindenville Annual Emissions by Sector (2019) Sector Subsector Unit Activity Data Emissions (MTCO2e) Residential Energy Electricity kWh - - Natural Gas Therms - - Nonresidential Energy Electricity kWh 72,547,690 13,261 Natural Gas Therms 2,562,828 13,641 Transportation On-Road VMT 103,627,286 41,193 Off-Road - 14,660 Solid Waste Tons 25,152 11,512 Water AF 734 0.07 TOTAL 94,266 SOURCE: LINDENVILLE SPECIFIC PLAN INVENTORY AND FORECAST, 2023. Figure 1: Total Lindenville Annual Emissions by Sector (2019) SOURCE: LINDENVILLE SPECIFIC PLAN INVENTORY AND FORECAST, 2023 29% 59% 12% 0.0001% Nonresidential Energy Transportation Solid Waste Water LINDENVILLE SPECIFIC PLAN Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Forecast / 3 INVENTORY AND FORECAST DATA SOURCES Data was collected from various sources to build the 2019 Lindenville inventory and 2040 forecast. Although for a sub-area, this inventory was developed in accordance with ICLEI’s Global Protocol for Community-Scale Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventories. Table 2 outlines the specific data sources used in this inventory. Table 2: Lindenville GHG Inventory and Forecast Data Sources Sector Data Data Source Residential Energy Energy use activity data PG&E Demographic data 2040 General Plan Growth Projections, Lindenville Specific Plan analysis Participation in Peninsula Clean Energy (PCE) PCE, 2022 CAP Emissions Factors PG&E, PCE Nonresidential Energy Energy use activity data PG&E Building square footages 2040 General Plan Growth Projections, Lindenville Specific Plan analysis Participation in PCE PCE, 2022 CAP Emissions Factors PG&E, PCE Transportation On-road VMT 2040 General Plan EIR VMT Analysis On-road emissions CARB EMFAC2021 Off-road emissions CARB EMFAC2021 EV adoption characteristics CEC Zero Emission Vehicle and Infrastructure Statistics Solid Waste Tonnage activity data South San Francisco Scavengers Waste Characterization CalRecycle Emissions Factor Equations 8.1 and 8.3 of the Global Protocol for Community-Scale GHG Emission Inventories Water Acre Feet activity data California Water Service 2020 Urban Water Management Plan South San Francisco District Water Energy Intensity Factor CAPCOA 2021 Table W-1.1 Emissions Factor PG&E To calculate GHG emissions, an emissions factor is applied to the activity data. Electricity suppliers provided CO2 emissions factor. In addition to carbon dioxide (CO2), small amounts of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) are released in the electricity generation process. CH4 and N2O emissions factors are provided by the ICLEI Community Protocol. Variability of the emissions factors occur primarily due to fluctuations in suppliers’ energy portfolio each year. CO2 is the most commonly referenced GHG, however, numerous gases have greenhouse characteristics. CH4 and N2O are commonly accounted for in GHG inventories. These gases have a greater global warming potential; CH4 traps approximately 28 times as much heat as CO2 over a 100-year period and N2O traps approximately 265 times as much heat. To account for these differences, a factor is applied to the gasses emissions to calculate a CO2 equivalence. LINDENVILLE SPECIFIC PLAN Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Forecast / 4 2040 Lindenville GHG Forecast DEMOGRAPHIC AND LAND USE PROJECTIONS The emissions forecast for the Lindenville area is based on the demographic and land use projections of the preferred land use alternative for the 2040 General Plan. This forecast assumes that the anticipated development is fully implemented by 2040. Tables 3 and 4 show the assumed demographic and land use changes in South San Francisco and Lindenville. Table 3: Demographic Changes Lindenville and South San Francisco 2019-2040 City of South San Francisco Lindenville 2019 2040 2019 2040 Population 67,232 107,203 Population - 13,218 Jobs 57,182 137,557 Jobs 9,527 23,366 Single Family Housing Units 13,451 15,138 Single Family Housing Units - - Multi-family Housing Units 7,977 23,821 Multi-family Housing Units - 5,581 SOURCE: CENSUS ACS, 5-YEAR ESTIMATES (FOR YEAR 2019); SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO GENERAL PLAN 2040 GROWTH PROJECTIONS (FOR YEAR 2040) Table 4: Land Use Changes Lindenville and South San Francisco 2019-2040 City of South San Francisco Lindenville 2019 2040 2019 2040 Retail/Service SF 4,068,702 4,222,985 Retail/Service SF 723,600 838,759 Hotel SF - - Hotel SF 17,500 31,341 Hotel Keys 3,193 4,315 Hotel Keys 100 179 Office/R&D SF 12,008,617 47,438,654 Office/R&D SF 210,375 4,295,896 Industrial SF 15,483,142 12,063,567 Industrial SF 5,490,900 4,938,467 Other SF 127,200 275,376 Other SF - 4,137 Residential DU 21,428 38,959 Residential DU - 5,581 Open Space Acre Open Space Acre 11 44 TOTAL SF 31,687,661 64,000,582 TOTAL SF 6,442,375 10,108,600 SOURCE: CITY OF SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO (FOR YEAR 2019); SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO GENERAL PLAN 2040 GROWTH PROJECTIONS (FOR YEAR 2040) LINDENVILLE SPECIFIC PLAN Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Forecast / 5 2040 EMISSIONS FORECAST The Lindenville 2040 emissions forecast includes emissions reductions resulting from State level policies and select mitigation measures from South San Francisco’s newly adopted General Plan 2040 and CAP. There are three major policies that the State has adopted to reduce community GHG emissions: 1. Renewables Portfolio Standard (RPS): This law requires that electrical utilities provide an increased amount of electricity from eligible renewable sources. SB 100 requires that 33% of electricity sold by utilities in 2020 be renewable, 60% be renewable in 2030, and 100% be carbon-free in 2045. 2. Title 24: Title 24 is the set of regulations that specifies how new buildings must be constructed, including specifying minimum energy efficiency standards. These standards are updated triennially to be more stringent. California has set a goal for zero-net energy new construction by 2030. 3. Pavely Clean Car Standards: These standards require that vehicles sold in California meet minimum fuel efficiency requirements, and that fuel sold in the state emits less GHGs during production and use. Additionally, this forecast includes the following measures from the South San Francisco General Plan and CAP because they are already being implemented by the City: 1. All-electric residential new construction 2. Continued participation in PCE 3. Mobility improvements as discussed in the Mobility Chapter of the 2040 General Plan. Based on the results of the Lindenville forecast, emissions are expected to increase from 94,266 MTCO2e in 2019 to 157,396 MTCO2e in 2040. Table 5 shows the forecasted emissions in Lindenville for each sector in 2040. Similar to 2019, transportation generates the most emissions (75%), followed by nonresidential energy use (14%), and solid waste (11%). Figure 2 depicts the proportion of emissions by sector in 2019. Table 5: 2040 Lindenville Emissions Forecast by Sector Sector Subsector Unit Activity Data Emissions (MTCO2e) Residential Energy Electricity kWh 15,472,295 16 Natural Gas Therms - - Nonresidential Energy Electricity kWh 113,833,109 121 Natural Gas Therms 4,021,281 21,404 Transportation On-Road VMT 355,237,443 100,531 Off-Road - 17,260 Solid Waste Tons 39,465 18,063 Water AF 1,495 0.15 TOTAL 157,396 SOURCE: LINDENVILLE SPECIFIC PLAN INVENTORY AND FORECAST LINDENVILLE SPECIFIC PLAN Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Forecast / 6 Figure 2: 2040 Lindenville Emissions Forecast by Sector SOURCE: LINDENVILLE SPECIFIC PLAN INVENTORY AND FORECAST However, assuming that all the measures in the CAP are implemented by 2040, emissions in Lindenville will be further reduced. The CAP-adjusted forecast estimates that the Lindenville sub-area will generate 78,808 MTCO2e in 2040, a reduction of 50% as compared to the non-adjusted forecast. This estimate aligns with the 63% reduction the CAP is expected to achieve across the city in 2040 and the above average growth of the Lindenville sub-area as compared to the City as a whole. The following table shows the CAP adjusted 2040 Lindenville emissions forecast by sector. Table 6: 2040 CAP Adjusted Lindenville Emissions Forecast by Sector Sector Subsector Emissions (MTCO2e) Residential Energy 16 Nonresidential Energy 2,743 Transportation On-road 43,503 Off-road 17,260 Solid Waste 15,286 Water 0.15 TOTAL 78,808 Table 7: 2040 Lindenville Emissions 2040 Forecast Compared to 2019 0.01% 14% 75% 11% 0.0001% Residential Energy Nonresidential Energy Transportation Solid Waste Water LINDENVILLE SPECIFIC PLAN Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Forecast / 7 Sector Subsector 2019 Emissions (MTCO2e) 2040 CAP-Adjusted Emissions (MTCO2e) Change in Emissions (MTCO2e) Residential Energy - 16 16 Nonresidential Energy 26,902 2,743 -24,159 Transportation On-Road 41,193 43,503 2,310 Off-Road 14,660 17,260 2,600 Solid Waste 11,512 15,286 3,774 Water 0.07 0.15 0.08 TOTAL 94,266 78,808 -15,459 Key Findings • Lindenville GHG emissions are anticipated to increase by 67% from 94,266 MTCO2e in 2019 to 157,396 MTCO2e in 2040 but applying the reductions from implementing the SSF CAP, emissions are expected to decrease emissions 16% to 78,808 MTCO2e as compared 2019 and 50% as compared to the 2040 emissions forecast. • The CAP-adjusted forecast aligns with the emissions reductions estimated from the implementation of the 2040 General Plan and CAP. Forecasted emissions in Lindenville are expected to be reduced by 50% in 2040 as compared to 63% citywide in 2040. • GHG emissions from on-road transportation are the largest sector, accounting for 44% of Lindenville emissions (41,193 MTCO2e) in 2019 and 64% of emissions (100,531) in 2040. This 144% increase in emissions corresponds to the 243% increase in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in 2040. However, accounting for General Plan and CAP implementation, reduces the forecasted transportation emissions to 43,503 MTCO2e, only a 5.5% increase. • Despite the introduction of residential housing in Lindenville, the resulting emissions account for only 0.02% of total Lindenville CAP-adjusted emissions in 2040. These relatively nominal emissions are the result of all-electric residential new construction and the low carbon intensity of electricity due to the RPS and high level of participation in PCE, which provides carbon-free electricity.