HomeMy WebLinkAbout4.K._Population-Housing
IV. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ANALYSIS
K. POPULATION AND HOUSING
INTRODUCTION
This section of the Draft EIR describes existing population, employment and housing in the project area
and analyzes the potential for adverse impacts on population and housing resulting from implementation
of the proposed project. The Draft EIR analysis is limited to those socioeconomic issues that could result
in a direct change on the physical environment (CEQA Guidelines Section 15131). In light of this, the
effect of the proposed project on property values and its economic effect on surrounding businesses are
not considered environmental issues, and thus will not be analyzed. Where appropriate, this section
provides project level analysis for the Phase 1 Precise Plan, and program level analysis for the remainder
of development proposed by the Gateway Business Park Master Plan. A regulatory framework is also
provided in this section describing applicable agencies and regulations related to population and housing.
Preparation of this section used data from various sources. These sources include the Association of Bay
Area Governments ("ABAG") and the City of South San Francisco General Plan Housing Element
("Housing Element"), updated in June 2009.
No comment letters related to population, employment, and housing were received in response to the June
16, 2008 Notice of Preparation (NOP) or the October 22, 2008 Revised NOP circulated for the project.
The NOP and comment letters are included in Appendix A of this Draft EIR.
ENVIRONMENTAL SETTING
Physical Setting
Population, housing, and employment data are available on city, county, regional, and state levels. Table
IV.K-l shows population, housing, and employment data at the City and County level, in order to focus
the analysis on the City of South San Francisco.
Table IV.K-1
Current and Future Population, Employment and Housing
South San Francisco and San Mateo County
Total Population 61,700 66,600 69,700 721,900 766,900 801,300
Total Jobs 42,240 45,350 48,290 337,350 373,370 404,400
Total Households 20,130 21,750 22,840 260,070 275,680 287,350
ce: ABAG Projections, 2009.
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Population
According to the 2000 U.S. Census, the City of South San Francisco had a population of 60,552 in 2000.
ABAG Projections 2009 projected the total population of South San Francisco as 61,700 in 2005. As
these numbers indicate, the City is primarily built out and no new substantial residential uses are
anticipated.
Table IV.K-2 shows the projected population growth in the City, surrounding communities and the
County from 2005 to 2020. The three most populous cities in San Mateo County are Daly City, Redwood
City, and the City of San Mateo. South San Francisco ranks as the fourth most populated City in San
Mateo County. Based on the ABAG Projections 2009 data, the population in the City of South San
Francisco would increase by a total of approximately 13.0 percent from 2005 to 2020, which recorded a
population of62,502 in 2008.
Table IV.K-2
Population Projections: South San Francisco and Neighboring Communities
2005 to 2020
South San Francisco 61,700
Daly City 104,800
San Bmno 41,400
colma 1,500
San Mateo County 721,900
I Source: ABAG Projections, 2009.
66,600
111,100
45,600
1,700
766,900
69,700
118,000
48,600
1,800
801,300
8,000
13,200
7,200
300
79,400
Households
As defined by ABAG, household is another term for an occupied dwelling unit. A household includes all
persons who occupy a housing unit. A housing unit is a group of rooms or a single room occupied as
separate living quarters where occupants live separately from other persons in the building and have
direct access from outside the building or through a common hall. A household can include more than one
family.
Re2ional Housin2 Needs Allocation
The State of California's Housing and Community Development Department works with regional
Councils of Governments (COGs) to determine the amount of housing needed within the region. ABAG
is this region's COG. The determination of housing need is based on existing need and estimated
population growth. Need is determined for households in all income categories: very-low, low, moderate
and above-moderate incomes. Once the total regional need is determined, ABAG works with local
governments and others to allocate the total need to individual cities and counties. Local governments are
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then required to plan where and how the allocated housing units will be developed within their
communities. This is done through the Housing Element of each local government's General Plan.
Based on a methodology that weighs a number of factors (e.g., projected population growth, employment,
commute patterns, available sites), ABAG determines quantifiable needs for housing units in the region
according to various income categories. ABAG publishes an annual report that discusses housing issues
of importance to the San Francisco Bay Area. The 2008 report, San Francisco Bay Area Housing Needs
Plan, 2007-2014, explains the Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) process and outcomes. The
San Francisco Bay Area Housing Needs Plan, 2007-2014, allocates 1,635 housing units to the City of
South San Francisco (General Plan).
The City's current Housing Element was adopted in June 2009 and addressed ABAG's previous RHNA.
The planning horizon for the Housing Element extends from 2007 to 2014. Between January 1,2007, and
June 30, 2009, South San Francisco built 815 new units. In addition there were 15 housing units that were
substantially rehabilitated and converted from market rate to affordable housing. Consequently, the City
has a remaining balance of 805 units which it must plan for during the remainder of the planning period.
According to the General Plan Housing Element, South San Francisco has an adequate number of sites to
accommodate its share of the regional housing need between 2007 and 2014. There is sufficient land to
support the production of more than 1,195 new housing units.
Potential Future Housin2: Development
The General Plan Housing Element includes an analysis of residential development potential. A total of
30.8 acres within the City of South San Francisco are considered opportunity sites (Transit Village, South
El Camino Real, and Downtown), upon which a total 1,244 residential units could be built (Table 40,
South San Francisco General Plan Housing Element).
Jobs/Housing Balance
According to the General Plan Housing Element, the City has a history of imbalance in its jobs/housing
ratio. South San Francisco is a ')obs rich" City with substantial in-commuting from other jurisdictions. In
2007, there were approximately 30,000 employed residents in the City compared to 50,000 jobs, a ratio of
1.7 jobs per every working resident of the City. By comparison, in 2007 San Mateo County had a much
closer balance between the number of employed residents and total jobs with approximately 370,000
employed residents and 340,000 jobs, a ratio of 0.9 jobs per every working resident of the County.
Given that much of the land in the City, including all of the East of 101 Area, is not zoned for residential
development, attainment of a jobs and housing balance in South San Francisco is doubtful. On the other
hand, continued job growth in the City will promote a greater regional balance between jobs and housing.
As an inner Bay Area community well served by all modes of transit-including air and rail, BART and
ferry service in the near future-future employees from and traveling to the City will have varied means
of reaching employment sites.
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The City's General Plan Housing Element seeks to maximize residential development opportunities on
infill sites. The intent here is that increased residential development within the City will help alleviate
traffic impacts resulting from economic development, and provide residential opportunities to those that
work in the City but currently live elsewhere.
As South San Francisco's employment base, the East of 101 Area is expected to accommodate a major
share of South San Francisco's new non-residential development. While under the General Plan total
building floor space is expected to increase by about 50 percent (from 12.0 million square feet [sf] to
about 17.4 million sf), overall employment levels are expected to more than double (from 22,200 in 1997
to 42,000 at General Plan buildout in 2020).
In 2005, the City of South San Francisco completed a Traffic Impact Fee Study Update (Update) for the
East of 101 Area. The Update looks at existing development plus all pending developments that were
either completed or approved from September 2001 through March 2005. According to the document, the
employment buildout in the East of 101 Area is expected to reach 52,880 mainly due to substantial
increases in Office/R & D development and the fact that these uses have much higher employment
intensity than industrial development.
Consistent with this, ABAG Projections 2009 projects the City's total employment number to be 48,290
in 2020. Both the Traffic Impact Fee Study Update and the ABAG Projections 2009 are based upon
existing planning documentation; therefore, as new projects are approved, the projection numbers would
also change. As such, the employment buildout projections are not treated as limits, rather they project the
employment for the region based upon the best available data.
Regarding the City's jobs-housing balance, although the jobs-housing balance is a measure for land use
planning purposes, the City does not currently have an adopted jobs-housing ratio goal.
Regulatory Setting
Federal
There are no federal regulations related to population and housing that apply to the proposed project.
State
There are no state regulations related to population and housing that apply to the proposed project.
Local
Association of Bav Area Governments
The Association of Bay Area Governments Regional Comprehensive Plan and Guide governs regulations
applicable to population and housing for the proposed project. California's Housing Element Law assigns
responsibility for developing projections of regional housing need and for allocating a share of this need
to localities within the region to regional councils of government. For the San Francisco Bay Area, these
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determinations are prepared by ABAG and documented in its San Francisco Bay Area Housing Needs
Plan (Plan).
The plan documents the Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) for the Bay Area. The RHNA
process is a state mandate, devised to address the need for and planning of housing across a range of
affordability and in all communities throughout the state. Each jurisdiction within the Bay Area (101
cities, nine counties) is given a share of the anticipated regional housing need. The Bay Area's regional
housing need is specified by the California State Department of Housing and Community Development
(HCD) and finalized through negotiations with ABAG. The timeframe for this RHNA process is 2007
through 2014(a seven year planning period).
South San Francisco General Plan and Municipal Code
The General Plan Housing Element and the SSFMC govern regulations applicable to population and
housing for the proposed project. The City's General Plan Housing Element seeks to maximize residential
development opportunities on infill sites. The intent here is that increased residential development within
the City will help alleviate traffic impacts resulting from economic development, and provide residential
opportunities to those that work in the City but currently live elsewhere.
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
Methodology
This analysis considers employment growth, and the resulting increase in overall population growth and
housing demand that would occur with implementation of the proposed project and whether this growth is
within local or regional forecasts. In addition, this analysis determines whether it can be considered
substantial with respect to remaining growth potential in the City as articulated in the East of 101 Area
Plan. Further, this analysis considers whether growth and development were previously assumed to occur
in the project Area. Specifically, population, employment, and housing impacts were analyzed by
comparing the proposed project with growth projections for the City from ABAG.
Thresholds of Significance
The following thresholds of significance are based on Appendix G of the 2006 CEQA Guidelines. For
purposes of this Draft EIR, implementation of the proposed project could result in potentially significant
impacts to population and housing if the proposed project would result in any ofthe following:
. Induce substantial population growth in an area, either directly (for example, by proposing
new homes and businesses) or indirectly (for example, through extension of roads or other
infrastructure)
. Displace substantial numbers of existing housing, necessitating the construction of
replacement housing elsewhere
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. Displace substantial numbers of people, necessitating the construction of replacement
housing elsewhere
Project Impacts
Impact IV.K-l: The proposed project would not directly or indirectly induce substantial population
growth in the area by proposing housing or increased employment.
The project does not propose any housing. Currently, there are approximately 750 employees! working on
the project site. The Precise Plan and subsequent phases of the Master Plan propose the construction of a
maximum of 604,800 and 1,230,370 square feet of office uses by 2015 and 2020, respectively. As shown
in Table IV.K-3, this would result in 1,613 employees working on the site by the year 2015 (including the
Precise Plan and Phase 2 of the Master Plan) and 3,281 employees by the year 2020 (all other phases of
the Master Plan). Accounting for the current 750 employees, the project would account for a net increase
in 863 employees working on the site by 2015 at the end of the Precise Plan and Phase 2 of the Master
Plan. From the time period from 2015 to 2020, from the completion of the Precise Plan and Phase 2 up to
final buildout of the Master Plan, the project would result in an increase of 1,668 employees on the site.
Overall, the project, including the Precise Plan and all phases of the Master Plan, would result in a total
net increase of 2,531 employees working on the site by 2020. ABAG projects an increase in employment
in the City of 3,110 jobs from 2005 to 2015 and 2,940 jobs from 2015 to 2020. Therefore, the Precise
Plan and Master Plan's contributions to the increase in employment in the City would be within ABAG's
employment projections for the City for both the years of2015 and 2020.
The increase in employees in the City could result in an increase in demand for housing. As described
previously, the City is primarily built out and any housing constructed within the City limits would most
likely be infill housing. Therefore, the project could result in an increased unfavorable jobs/housing ratio
in the City which would increase over the implementation of the Precise Plan and subsequent phases of
the Master Plan.
A jobs-housing ratio is a numeric representation of the relationship between the total number of jobs and
the total number of residential units in an area. This ratio indicates the ability of a region to provide both
adequate employment and housing opportunities for its existing and projected population. A jobs housing
ratio of 1.0 represents a balance of jobs and housing. An overall jobs-housing ratio of 1.0 to 1.5 is
generally considered balanced (so that there is little in- or out-commuting). A balance of jobs and housing
can benefit the regional environment by reducing commute times and distances between residential areas
and employment centers. Longer commutes result in increased vehicle trip length, which creates
environmental effects, such as those associated with transportation, air quality, and noise. As discussed
above, South San Francisco currently has a high jobs/housing ratio of 1.7; this means that South San
Francisco is a job center that imports employees from surrounding communities, or alternatively, that
exports housing.
1 Chamberlin Associates, 2008.
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Table IV.K-3
Gateway Business Park Project Projected Employees
Office
248,000
604,800
1,230,370
Total Employees
1,613
1,613
3,281
3,281
* sf= Square Feet
** 375 sfper employee
Source: City of South San Francisco, 2008.
Based on ABAG's projections, the future jobslhousing ratio in the City for 2015 would increase to
approximately 2.09 by 2015 and to 2.11 by 2020. These ratios suggest poor housing availability relative
to the amount of jobs projected, and a high level of in-commuting. Housing availability, already projected
to be out of balance, would decrease with implementation of the Precise Plan and subsequent phases of
the Master Plan. Assuming that not more than one person per household would be employed by the
project, the project would add 863 employees by 2015 (netting out the existing 750 employees on the site)
and 1,668 more by 2020 for a total of 2,531 new employees. This would create the need for 2,531 new
units of housing in the City, which can not all be provided for by the City. Consequently, the potential
employment increase resulting from the project would result in direct and indirect growth that may not be
accommodated by existing or proposed housing projections for the City.
However, continued job growth in the City will promote a greater regional balance between jobs and
housing. The City is a strategically located inner Bay Area community well served by all modes of
transit-including air and rail, BART and ferry service (in the near future). Therefore, future employees
commuting to jobs in the City would have varied means of reaching the project.
Given that the number of employees generated by the project would be within the ABAG projections, the
fact that the City does not have an adopted jobslhousing ratio goal, and overall the project would promote
a greater regional jobs balance, implementation of the Precise Plan and subsequent phases of the Master
Plan would not directly or indirectly induce substantial population growth and this impact would be less
than significant and no mitigation measures are required.
Impact IV.K-2: The proposed project would not displace existing housing, and would not necessitate
the construction of replacement housing elsewhere.
The project site is located in the East of 101 Area. According to the General Plan, the East of 101 Area,
the traditional core of South San Francisco's industry, was originally developed with meat packing and
heavy manufacturing activities. In the post-war years the City converted previously unused marshlands
into areas usable for industrial development, drastically reshaping the shoreline and attracting light
industry to the City for the first time. Residential uses are not permitted in the East of 101 Area. As South
San Francisco's employment base, the East of 101 Area is expected to accommodate a major share of
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South San Francisco's new non-residential development. Since no residential uses exist in the project
area, implementation of the proposed project would not displace existing housing. Therefore, there would
be no impact and no mitigation measures are required.
Impact IV.K-3: The proposed project would not displace substantial numbers of people, and would not
necessitate the construction of replacement housing elsewhere.
No residences exist in the project area. Thus no residents would be displaced, and construction of
replacement housing elsewhere would not be necessitated. Therefore, there would be no impact and no
mitigation measures are required.
CUMULATIVE IMPACTS
The project proposes the redevelopment of the site with existing office and research & development uses,
although at a greater FAR than currently exists. As a result of this redevelopment at a greater intensity,
population growth would be induced in the South San Francisco area. Other future development in the
City would have the same effect as each project would create new jobs and/or homes within the City.
Although the employment generated by the project fits within the ABAG estimates for employment
growth in the area, the project would generate demand for additional housing in the area. The proposed
project in conjunction with existing and future area projects could be cumulatively considerable creating a
significant impact on population growth in the South San Francisco area; however, continued job growth
in the city will promote a greater regional balance between jobs and housing.
The General Plan Housing Element was adopted in June 2009. According to the General Plan Housing
Element, South San Francisco has an adequate number of sites to accommodate its share of the regional
housing need between 2007 and 2014. As an inner Bay Area community well served by all modes of
transit-including air and rail, BART and ferry service in the near future-future employees from and
traveling to the City would have varied means of reaching employment sites. Therefore, because the
Housing Element determined that the City can accommodate its share of the regional housing need, and
continued employment growth within the City would serve to balance regional needs between jobs and
housing, this impact is considered to be less than significant.
LEVEL OF SIGNIFICANCE AFTER MITIGATION
Because no impacts related to population and housing have been identified, no mitigation measures are
required or recommended.
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