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HomeMy WebLinkAbout4.K._Population-Housing IV. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ANALYSIS K. POPULATION AND HOUSING INTRODUCTION This section of the Draft EIR describes existing population, employment and housing in the project area and analyzes the potential for adverse impacts on population and housing resulting from implementation of the proposed project. The Draft EIR analysis is limited to those socioeconomic issues that could result in a direct change on the physical environment (CEQA Guidelines Section 15131). In light of this, the effect of the proposed project on property values and its economic effect on surrounding businesses are not considered environmental issues, and thus will not be analyzed. Where appropriate, this section provides project level analysis for the Phase 1 Precise Plan, and program level analysis for the remainder of development proposed by the Gateway Business Park Master Plan. A regulatory framework is also provided in this section describing applicable agencies and regulations related to population and housing. Preparation of this section used data from various sources. These sources include the Association of Bay Area Governments ("ABAG") and the City of South San Francisco General Plan Housing Element ("Housing Element"), updated in June 2009. No comment letters related to population, employment, and housing were received in response to the June 16, 2008 Notice of Preparation (NOP) or the October 22, 2008 Revised NOP circulated for the project. The NOP and comment letters are included in Appendix A of this Draft EIR. ENVIRONMENTAL SETTING Physical Setting Population, housing, and employment data are available on city, county, regional, and state levels. Table IV.K-l shows population, housing, and employment data at the City and County level, in order to focus the analysis on the City of South San Francisco. Table IV.K-1 Current and Future Population, Employment and Housing South San Francisco and San Mateo County Total Population 61,700 66,600 69,700 721,900 766,900 801,300 Total Jobs 42,240 45,350 48,290 337,350 373,370 404,400 Total Households 20,130 21,750 22,840 260,070 275,680 287,350 ce: ABAG Projections, 2009. Gateway Business Park Master Plan Draft Environmental Impact Report IVK. Population and Housing Page IVK-l City of South San Francisco October 2009 Population According to the 2000 U.S. Census, the City of South San Francisco had a population of 60,552 in 2000. ABAG Projections 2009 projected the total population of South San Francisco as 61,700 in 2005. As these numbers indicate, the City is primarily built out and no new substantial residential uses are anticipated. Table IV.K-2 shows the projected population growth in the City, surrounding communities and the County from 2005 to 2020. The three most populous cities in San Mateo County are Daly City, Redwood City, and the City of San Mateo. South San Francisco ranks as the fourth most populated City in San Mateo County. Based on the ABAG Projections 2009 data, the population in the City of South San Francisco would increase by a total of approximately 13.0 percent from 2005 to 2020, which recorded a population of62,502 in 2008. Table IV.K-2 Population Projections: South San Francisco and Neighboring Communities 2005 to 2020 South San Francisco 61,700 Daly City 104,800 San Bmno 41,400 colma 1,500 San Mateo County 721,900 I Source: ABAG Projections, 2009. 66,600 111,100 45,600 1,700 766,900 69,700 118,000 48,600 1,800 801,300 8,000 13,200 7,200 300 79,400 Households As defined by ABAG, household is another term for an occupied dwelling unit. A household includes all persons who occupy a housing unit. A housing unit is a group of rooms or a single room occupied as separate living quarters where occupants live separately from other persons in the building and have direct access from outside the building or through a common hall. A household can include more than one family. Re2ional Housin2 Needs Allocation The State of California's Housing and Community Development Department works with regional Councils of Governments (COGs) to determine the amount of housing needed within the region. ABAG is this region's COG. The determination of housing need is based on existing need and estimated population growth. Need is determined for households in all income categories: very-low, low, moderate and above-moderate incomes. Once the total regional need is determined, ABAG works with local governments and others to allocate the total need to individual cities and counties. Local governments are Gateway Business Park Master Plan Draft Environmental Impact Report IVK. Population and Housing Page IVK-2 City of South San Francisco October 2009 then required to plan where and how the allocated housing units will be developed within their communities. This is done through the Housing Element of each local government's General Plan. Based on a methodology that weighs a number of factors (e.g., projected population growth, employment, commute patterns, available sites), ABAG determines quantifiable needs for housing units in the region according to various income categories. ABAG publishes an annual report that discusses housing issues of importance to the San Francisco Bay Area. The 2008 report, San Francisco Bay Area Housing Needs Plan, 2007-2014, explains the Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) process and outcomes. The San Francisco Bay Area Housing Needs Plan, 2007-2014, allocates 1,635 housing units to the City of South San Francisco (General Plan). The City's current Housing Element was adopted in June 2009 and addressed ABAG's previous RHNA. The planning horizon for the Housing Element extends from 2007 to 2014. Between January 1,2007, and June 30, 2009, South San Francisco built 815 new units. In addition there were 15 housing units that were substantially rehabilitated and converted from market rate to affordable housing. Consequently, the City has a remaining balance of 805 units which it must plan for during the remainder of the planning period. According to the General Plan Housing Element, South San Francisco has an adequate number of sites to accommodate its share of the regional housing need between 2007 and 2014. There is sufficient land to support the production of more than 1,195 new housing units. Potential Future Housin2: Development The General Plan Housing Element includes an analysis of residential development potential. A total of 30.8 acres within the City of South San Francisco are considered opportunity sites (Transit Village, South El Camino Real, and Downtown), upon which a total 1,244 residential units could be built (Table 40, South San Francisco General Plan Housing Element). Jobs/Housing Balance According to the General Plan Housing Element, the City has a history of imbalance in its jobs/housing ratio. South San Francisco is a ')obs rich" City with substantial in-commuting from other jurisdictions. In 2007, there were approximately 30,000 employed residents in the City compared to 50,000 jobs, a ratio of 1.7 jobs per every working resident of the City. By comparison, in 2007 San Mateo County had a much closer balance between the number of employed residents and total jobs with approximately 370,000 employed residents and 340,000 jobs, a ratio of 0.9 jobs per every working resident of the County. Given that much of the land in the City, including all of the East of 101 Area, is not zoned for residential development, attainment of a jobs and housing balance in South San Francisco is doubtful. On the other hand, continued job growth in the City will promote a greater regional balance between jobs and housing. As an inner Bay Area community well served by all modes of transit-including air and rail, BART and ferry service in the near future-future employees from and traveling to the City will have varied means of reaching employment sites. Gateway Business Park Master Plan Draft Environmental Impact Report IVK. Population and Housing Page IVK-3 City of South San Francisco October 2009 The City's General Plan Housing Element seeks to maximize residential development opportunities on infill sites. The intent here is that increased residential development within the City will help alleviate traffic impacts resulting from economic development, and provide residential opportunities to those that work in the City but currently live elsewhere. As South San Francisco's employment base, the East of 101 Area is expected to accommodate a major share of South San Francisco's new non-residential development. While under the General Plan total building floor space is expected to increase by about 50 percent (from 12.0 million square feet [sf] to about 17.4 million sf), overall employment levels are expected to more than double (from 22,200 in 1997 to 42,000 at General Plan buildout in 2020). In 2005, the City of South San Francisco completed a Traffic Impact Fee Study Update (Update) for the East of 101 Area. The Update looks at existing development plus all pending developments that were either completed or approved from September 2001 through March 2005. According to the document, the employment buildout in the East of 101 Area is expected to reach 52,880 mainly due to substantial increases in Office/R & D development and the fact that these uses have much higher employment intensity than industrial development. Consistent with this, ABAG Projections 2009 projects the City's total employment number to be 48,290 in 2020. Both the Traffic Impact Fee Study Update and the ABAG Projections 2009 are based upon existing planning documentation; therefore, as new projects are approved, the projection numbers would also change. As such, the employment buildout projections are not treated as limits, rather they project the employment for the region based upon the best available data. Regarding the City's jobs-housing balance, although the jobs-housing balance is a measure for land use planning purposes, the City does not currently have an adopted jobs-housing ratio goal. Regulatory Setting Federal There are no federal regulations related to population and housing that apply to the proposed project. State There are no state regulations related to population and housing that apply to the proposed project. Local Association of Bav Area Governments The Association of Bay Area Governments Regional Comprehensive Plan and Guide governs regulations applicable to population and housing for the proposed project. California's Housing Element Law assigns responsibility for developing projections of regional housing need and for allocating a share of this need to localities within the region to regional councils of government. For the San Francisco Bay Area, these Gateway Business Park Master Plan Draft Environmental Impact Report IVK. Population and Housing Page IVK-4 City of South San Francisco October 2009 determinations are prepared by ABAG and documented in its San Francisco Bay Area Housing Needs Plan (Plan). The plan documents the Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) for the Bay Area. The RHNA process is a state mandate, devised to address the need for and planning of housing across a range of affordability and in all communities throughout the state. Each jurisdiction within the Bay Area (101 cities, nine counties) is given a share of the anticipated regional housing need. The Bay Area's regional housing need is specified by the California State Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) and finalized through negotiations with ABAG. The timeframe for this RHNA process is 2007 through 2014(a seven year planning period). South San Francisco General Plan and Municipal Code The General Plan Housing Element and the SSFMC govern regulations applicable to population and housing for the proposed project. The City's General Plan Housing Element seeks to maximize residential development opportunities on infill sites. The intent here is that increased residential development within the City will help alleviate traffic impacts resulting from economic development, and provide residential opportunities to those that work in the City but currently live elsewhere. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS Methodology This analysis considers employment growth, and the resulting increase in overall population growth and housing demand that would occur with implementation of the proposed project and whether this growth is within local or regional forecasts. In addition, this analysis determines whether it can be considered substantial with respect to remaining growth potential in the City as articulated in the East of 101 Area Plan. Further, this analysis considers whether growth and development were previously assumed to occur in the project Area. Specifically, population, employment, and housing impacts were analyzed by comparing the proposed project with growth projections for the City from ABAG. Thresholds of Significance The following thresholds of significance are based on Appendix G of the 2006 CEQA Guidelines. For purposes of this Draft EIR, implementation of the proposed project could result in potentially significant impacts to population and housing if the proposed project would result in any ofthe following: . Induce substantial population growth in an area, either directly (for example, by proposing new homes and businesses) or indirectly (for example, through extension of roads or other infrastructure) . Displace substantial numbers of existing housing, necessitating the construction of replacement housing elsewhere Gateway Business Park Master Plan Draft Environmental Impact Report IVK. Population and Housing Page IVK-5 City of South San Francisco October 2009 . Displace substantial numbers of people, necessitating the construction of replacement housing elsewhere Project Impacts Impact IV.K-l: The proposed project would not directly or indirectly induce substantial population growth in the area by proposing housing or increased employment. The project does not propose any housing. Currently, there are approximately 750 employees! working on the project site. The Precise Plan and subsequent phases of the Master Plan propose the construction of a maximum of 604,800 and 1,230,370 square feet of office uses by 2015 and 2020, respectively. As shown in Table IV.K-3, this would result in 1,613 employees working on the site by the year 2015 (including the Precise Plan and Phase 2 of the Master Plan) and 3,281 employees by the year 2020 (all other phases of the Master Plan). Accounting for the current 750 employees, the project would account for a net increase in 863 employees working on the site by 2015 at the end of the Precise Plan and Phase 2 of the Master Plan. From the time period from 2015 to 2020, from the completion of the Precise Plan and Phase 2 up to final buildout of the Master Plan, the project would result in an increase of 1,668 employees on the site. Overall, the project, including the Precise Plan and all phases of the Master Plan, would result in a total net increase of 2,531 employees working on the site by 2020. ABAG projects an increase in employment in the City of 3,110 jobs from 2005 to 2015 and 2,940 jobs from 2015 to 2020. Therefore, the Precise Plan and Master Plan's contributions to the increase in employment in the City would be within ABAG's employment projections for the City for both the years of2015 and 2020. The increase in employees in the City could result in an increase in demand for housing. As described previously, the City is primarily built out and any housing constructed within the City limits would most likely be infill housing. Therefore, the project could result in an increased unfavorable jobs/housing ratio in the City which would increase over the implementation of the Precise Plan and subsequent phases of the Master Plan. A jobs-housing ratio is a numeric representation of the relationship between the total number of jobs and the total number of residential units in an area. This ratio indicates the ability of a region to provide both adequate employment and housing opportunities for its existing and projected population. A jobs housing ratio of 1.0 represents a balance of jobs and housing. An overall jobs-housing ratio of 1.0 to 1.5 is generally considered balanced (so that there is little in- or out-commuting). A balance of jobs and housing can benefit the regional environment by reducing commute times and distances between residential areas and employment centers. Longer commutes result in increased vehicle trip length, which creates environmental effects, such as those associated with transportation, air quality, and noise. As discussed above, South San Francisco currently has a high jobs/housing ratio of 1.7; this means that South San Francisco is a job center that imports employees from surrounding communities, or alternatively, that exports housing. 1 Chamberlin Associates, 2008. Gateway Business Park Master Plan Draft Environmental Impact Report IVK. Population and Housing Page IVK-6 City of South San Francisco October 2009 Table IV.K-3 Gateway Business Park Project Projected Employees Office 248,000 604,800 1,230,370 Total Employees 1,613 1,613 3,281 3,281 * sf= Square Feet ** 375 sfper employee Source: City of South San Francisco, 2008. Based on ABAG's projections, the future jobslhousing ratio in the City for 2015 would increase to approximately 2.09 by 2015 and to 2.11 by 2020. These ratios suggest poor housing availability relative to the amount of jobs projected, and a high level of in-commuting. Housing availability, already projected to be out of balance, would decrease with implementation of the Precise Plan and subsequent phases of the Master Plan. Assuming that not more than one person per household would be employed by the project, the project would add 863 employees by 2015 (netting out the existing 750 employees on the site) and 1,668 more by 2020 for a total of 2,531 new employees. This would create the need for 2,531 new units of housing in the City, which can not all be provided for by the City. Consequently, the potential employment increase resulting from the project would result in direct and indirect growth that may not be accommodated by existing or proposed housing projections for the City. However, continued job growth in the City will promote a greater regional balance between jobs and housing. The City is a strategically located inner Bay Area community well served by all modes of transit-including air and rail, BART and ferry service (in the near future). Therefore, future employees commuting to jobs in the City would have varied means of reaching the project. Given that the number of employees generated by the project would be within the ABAG projections, the fact that the City does not have an adopted jobslhousing ratio goal, and overall the project would promote a greater regional jobs balance, implementation of the Precise Plan and subsequent phases of the Master Plan would not directly or indirectly induce substantial population growth and this impact would be less than significant and no mitigation measures are required. Impact IV.K-2: The proposed project would not displace existing housing, and would not necessitate the construction of replacement housing elsewhere. The project site is located in the East of 101 Area. According to the General Plan, the East of 101 Area, the traditional core of South San Francisco's industry, was originally developed with meat packing and heavy manufacturing activities. In the post-war years the City converted previously unused marshlands into areas usable for industrial development, drastically reshaping the shoreline and attracting light industry to the City for the first time. Residential uses are not permitted in the East of 101 Area. As South San Francisco's employment base, the East of 101 Area is expected to accommodate a major share of Gateway Business Park Master Plan Draft Environmental Impact Report IVK. Population and Housing Page IVK-7 City of South San Francisco October 2009 South San Francisco's new non-residential development. Since no residential uses exist in the project area, implementation of the proposed project would not displace existing housing. Therefore, there would be no impact and no mitigation measures are required. Impact IV.K-3: The proposed project would not displace substantial numbers of people, and would not necessitate the construction of replacement housing elsewhere. No residences exist in the project area. Thus no residents would be displaced, and construction of replacement housing elsewhere would not be necessitated. Therefore, there would be no impact and no mitigation measures are required. CUMULATIVE IMPACTS The project proposes the redevelopment of the site with existing office and research & development uses, although at a greater FAR than currently exists. As a result of this redevelopment at a greater intensity, population growth would be induced in the South San Francisco area. Other future development in the City would have the same effect as each project would create new jobs and/or homes within the City. Although the employment generated by the project fits within the ABAG estimates for employment growth in the area, the project would generate demand for additional housing in the area. The proposed project in conjunction with existing and future area projects could be cumulatively considerable creating a significant impact on population growth in the South San Francisco area; however, continued job growth in the city will promote a greater regional balance between jobs and housing. The General Plan Housing Element was adopted in June 2009. According to the General Plan Housing Element, South San Francisco has an adequate number of sites to accommodate its share of the regional housing need between 2007 and 2014. As an inner Bay Area community well served by all modes of transit-including air and rail, BART and ferry service in the near future-future employees from and traveling to the City would have varied means of reaching employment sites. Therefore, because the Housing Element determined that the City can accommodate its share of the regional housing need, and continued employment growth within the City would serve to balance regional needs between jobs and housing, this impact is considered to be less than significant. LEVEL OF SIGNIFICANCE AFTER MITIGATION Because no impacts related to population and housing have been identified, no mitigation measures are required or recommended. Gateway Business Park Master Plan Draft Environmental Impact Report IVK. Population and Housing Page IVK-8