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HomeMy WebLinkAbout16_Sec4.11_PopulationEmployment 4.11 Population, Employment, and Housing 4.11POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, AND HOUSING This section describes existing population, employment and housing in the MEIR Study Area and analyzes the potential for adverse impacts on population and housing resulting from implementation of the proposed project. The MEIR analysis is limited to those socioeconomic issues that could result in a direct change on the physical environment (CEQA Guidelines Section 15131). In light of this, the effect of the proposed project on property values and its economic effect on surrounding businesses are not considered environmental issues, and thus will not be analyzed. Data used to prepare this section were derived from the United States Bureau of the Census (2005), the Association of Bay Area Governments (?ABAG?), and the City of South San Francisco General Plan Housing Element (?Housing Element?), updated in 2002. Full bibliographic entries for all reference materials are provided in Section 4.11.4 (References) of this document. No comment letters related to population, employment, and housing were received in response to the December 9, 2005 Revised Notice of Preparation (NOP) circulated for the project. In addition, no comments were received at the public scoping meeting held January 17, 2006. The NOP and comment letters are included in Appendix A of this MEIR. 4.11.1Existing Conditions Population, housing, and employment data are available on city, county, regional, and state levels. However, this section uses this data at the city level, in order to focus the analysis on the City of South San Francisco (see Table 4.11-1). Table 4.11-1 Current and Future Population, Employment and Housing South San Francisco and San Mateo County South San Francisco San Mateo County 2005201520052015 Total Population 61,000 65,600 723,200 773,900 Total Jobs 42,170 48,410 336,460 400,000 Total Households 19,980 21,390 261,280 278,650 SOURCE: ABAG 2005, Projections Population According to the 2000 U.S. Census, the City of South San Francisco had a population of 60,552 in 2000. ABAG Projections 2005, which was completed in 2004, projected the total population of South San Francisco as 61,000 in 2005. As these numbers indicate, the City is primarily built out and no new substantial residential uses are anticipated. Table 4.11-2 shows the projected population growth in the 4.11-1 Genentech Corporate Facilities Master EIR Chapter 4 Environmental Analysis City, surrounding communities and the County from 2005 to 2015. Based on the ABAG Projections 2005 data, the population in the City of South San Francisco would increase by a total of approximately 7.5 percent from 2005 to 2015, which recorded a population of 61,000 in 2005. South San Francisco ranks as the fourth most populated City in San Mateo County, following Daly City, the City of San Mateo, and Redwood City. According to ABAG Projections 2005, the City?s population is expected to grow by 4,600 persons between 2005 and 2015, a 7.5% increase. Table 4.11-2 Population Projections: South San Francisco and Neighboring Communities 2005 to 2015 2005-2015 Jurisdiction IncreaseinPopulation 200520102015 South San Francisco 61,000 62,300 65,600 4,600 Daly City 104,100 106,000 110,000 5,900 San Bruno 41,700 42,700 44,900 3,200 Colma 1,350 1,410 1,570 220 San Mateo County 723,200 741,000 773,900 50,700 SOURCE: ABAG 2005 Projections Households A household is defined by the U.S. Census as a group of people who occupy a housing unit. A household differs from a dwelling unit because the number of dwelling units includes both occupied and vacant dwelling units. It is important to note that not all of the population lives in households. A portion lives in group quarters, such as board and care facilities; others are homeless. Housing Needs Assessment Based on a methodology that weighs a number of factors (e.g., projected population growth, employment, commute patterns, available sites), ABAG determined quantifiable needs for housing units in the region according to various income categories. In its final Regional Needs Determination (RHND) figures, ABAG allocated 1,331 housing units to the City of South San Francisco (Housing Element 2005). Between January 1, 1999, and December 31, 2001, which is within the planning timeframe of the Housing Element, South San Francisco approved or built 1,688 new units. After accounting for approved and constructed housing units between January 1, 1999, and December 31, 2001, South San Francisco?s remaining fair share need is 504 new units (Housing Element 2005). According to the General Plan Housing Element, Summary of Quantified Objectives, pending projects and units that will be developed through implementation measures during the time frame of 2001 through 2006 will construct 528 more units. Once all units are constructed, the RHND will be exceeded by 24 units. 4.11-2 Genentech Corporate Facilities Master EIR 4.11 Population, Employment, and Housing PotentialFutureHousingDevelopment The General Plan Housing Element includes an analysis of residential development potential. A total of 40.95 acres within the City of South San Francisco are vacant or underutilized, upon which a total 1,399 residential units could be built (Tables I-32 and 33, South San Francisco General Plan Housing Element, Background Report, 2005). Approximately 704 of those units would be developed on 25.05 acres of underutilized land, and 695 units would be developed on 18 acres of vacant land. Jobs/Housing Balance According to the 1999 General Plan, the City has a history of imbalance in its jobs/housing ratio. For instance, in 1999, only 23 percent of the City?s employed residents actually worked within the City limits, despite a surplus of jobs. In 2005, South San Francisco had a total of 42,130 jobs and approximately 19,980 households. Therefore, the City?s existing jobs/housing ratio is 2.1, which is considered high. Essentially, this means that South San Francisco is a job center that imports employees from surrounding communities, or alternatively, that exports housing. By contrast, San Mateo County has a slight overall shortage of jobs relative to housing; although its job/housing ratio has crept closer to a balance during this same period. Given that much of the land in the City, including all of the East of 101 Area, is not zoned for residential development, attainment of a jobs and housing balance in South San Francisco is doubtful. On the other hand, continued job growth in the City will promote a greater regional balance between jobs and housing. As an inner Bay Area community well served by all modes of transit?including air and rail, BART and ferry service in the near future?future employees from and traveling to the City will have varied means of reaching employment sites. The City?s General Plan Housing Element seeks to maximize residential development opportunities on infill sites. The intent here is that increased residential development within the City will help alleviate traffic impacts resulting from economic development, and provide residential opportunities to those that work in the City but currently live elsewhere (Housing Element 2005). As South San Francisco?s employment base, the East of 101 Area is expected to accommodate a major share of South San Francisco?s new non-residential development. While under the General Plan total building floor space is expected to increase by about 50 percent (from 12.0 million sf to about 17.4 million sf), overall employment levels are expected to more than double (from 22,200 in 1997 to 42,000 at General Plan buildout in 2020). Genentech currently operates within 2.83 million sf in the Genentech R&D Overlay District and projects to expand to as much as 6.0 million sf in the next ten years, under the proposed project. The City?s Housing Element Background Report estimated that by the year 2020, total employment buildout of the East of 101 Area would reach approximately 35,430 employees. In 2005, the City of South San Francisco completed a Traffic Impact Fee Study Update (Update) for the East of 101 Area. The Update looks at existing development plus all pending development that were either completed or approved from September 2001 through March 2005. According to the document, the employment buildout in the East 4.11-3 Genentech Corporate Facilities Master EIR Chapter 4 Environmental Analysis of 101 Area is expected to reach 52,880 mainly due to substantial increases in Office/R&D development and the fact that these uses have much higher employment intensity than industrial development. Consistent with this, ABAG Projections 2005 projects that number to be 51,160 at buildout in 2020. Both the Traffic Impact Fee Study Update, and the ABAG Projections 2005 are based upon existing planning documentation; therefore, as new projects are approved, the projection numbers would also change. As such, the employment build out projections are not treated as limits, rather they project the employment for the region based upon the best available data. 4.11.2Regulatory Framework Federal There are no federal regulations related to population and housing that apply to the proposed project. State There are no state regulations related to population and housing that apply to the proposed project. Local Association of Bay Area Governments The Association of Bay Area Governments Regional Comprehensive Plan and Guide governs regulations applicable to population and housing for the proposed project. California?s Housing Element Law assigns responsibility for developing projections of regional housing need and for allocating a share of this need to localities within the region to regional councils of government. For the San Francisco Bay Area, these determinations were prepared by ABAG. The RHND process is a state mandate, devised to address the need for and planning of housing across a range of affordability and in all communities throughout the state. Each jurisdiction within the Bay Area (101 cities, 9 counties) is given a share of the anticipated regional housing need. The Bay Area's regional housing need is specified by the California State Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) and finalized through negotiations with ABAG. The timeframe for this RHND process is January 1, 1999, through June 30, 2006, (a seven and a half year planning period) (ABAG 2005). South San Francisco General Plan and Municipal Code The General Plan Housing Element and the SSFMC govern regulations applicable to population and housing for the proposed project. The City?s General Plan Housing Element seeks to maximize residential development opportunities on infill sites. The intent here is that increased residential development within the City will help alleviate 4.11-4 Genentech Corporate Facilities Master EIR 4.11 Population, Employment, and Housing traffic impacts resulting from economic development, and provide residential opportunities to those that work in the City but currently live elsewhere (Housing Element 2005). 4.11.3Project Impacts and Mitigation Analytic Method This analysis considers employment growth, and the resulting increase in overall population growth and housing demand that would occur with implementation of the proposed project and whether this growth is within local or regional forecasts. In addition, this analysis determines whether it can be considered substantial with respect to remaining growth potential in the City as articulated in the East of 101 Area Plan. Further, this analysis considers whether growth and development were previously assumed to occur in the Project Area. Specifically, population, employment, and housing impacts were analyzed by comparing the proposed project with growth projections for the City from ABAG. Thresholds of Significance The following thresholds of significance are based on Appendix G of the 2006 CEQA Guidelines. For purposes of this MEIR, implementation of the proposed project could result in potentially significant impacts to population and housing if the proposed project would result in any of the following: Induce substantial population growth in an area, either directly (for example, by proposing new homes and businesses) or indirectly (for example, through extension of roads or other infrastructure) Displace substantial numbers of existing housing, necessitating the construction of replacement housing elsewhere Displace substantial numbers of people, necessitating the construction of replacement housing elsewhere Impacts and Mitigation Measures Threshold Induce substantial population growth in an area, either directly (for example, by proposing new homes and businesses) or indirectly (for example, through extension of roads or other infrastructure). Impact 4.11-1 Implementation of the proposed project could directly and indirectly induce substantial population growth in the area by proposing increased less-than-significant employment. This is considered a impact. Presently, Genentech employs approximately 6,658 employees in the East of 101 Area. With the proposed expansion of its facilities under the proposed project, the new development could increase the number of employees to approximately 13,319, or approximately 6,661 net new employees, as shown in Table 4.11-3. 4.11-5 Genentech Corporate Facilities Master EIR Chapter 4 Environmental Analysis Table 4.11-3 Projected Employees at Buildout Proposed Buildout Factors Proposed Employees a Land Area 160 acres N/A N/A Office 2,629,395 sf 375 sf/employee 7,012 Laboratory 2,002,482 sf 450 sf/employee4,450 Manufacturing/Warehouse 1,041,668 sf 955 sf/employee 1,091 Amenity 322,000 sf 420 sf/employee 766 Total 5,995,545 sf N/A 13,319 SOURCE: EIP Associates 2006 a Employee numbers were rounded. The net increase of approximately 6,661 employees resulting from Genentech?s growth would exceed the City?s projected population growth expected during 2005 and 2015 at approximately 107 percent, and approximately 10 percent of the County?s during this time (per ABAG projections in Table 4.11-1). Although Genentech is presently the largest employer in the City, because the anticipated employment growth exceeds the existing forecasts for the City, Genentech?s anticipated employment growth is considered substantial and exceeds the General Plan. The significant increase in employees during the 10-year planning horizon could simultaneously create a significant demand for new housing in and around the City. This demand could exceed existing housing stock and/or housing proposed in the General Plan or ABAG?s RHND, as further discussed below. A jobs-housing ratio is a numeric representation of the relationship between the total number of jobs and the total number of residential units in an area. This ratio indicates the ability of a region to provide both adequate employment and housing opportunities for its existing and projected population. A jobs- housing ratio of one represents a balance of jobs and housing and, assuming similar income and housing cost levels, suggests that workers can afford to live close to their jobs. An overall jobs-housing ratio of 1 to 1.5 is generally considered balanced (so that there is little in- or out-commuting). A balance of jobs and housing can benefit the regional environment by reducing commute times and distances between residential areas and employment centers. Longer commutes result in increased vehicle trip length, which creates environmental effects, such as those associated with transportation, air quality, and noise. As discussed above, South San Francisco currently has a high jobs/housing ratio of 2.1; this means that South San Francisco is a job center that imports employees from surrounding communities, or alternatively, that exports housing. ABAG projects the number of jobs to increase to approximately 48,410 and the number of households to grow to approximately 21,390 by the year 2015, the approximate build out year of the proposed project. Consequently, the future jobs/housing ratio in 2015 is anticipated to increase to approximately 2.3, which suggests poor housing availability relative to the amount of jobs projected, and a high level of in-commuting. Housing availability, already projected to be out of balance, will decrease with implementation of the proposed project. Assuming that not more than one person per household would be employed by Genentech, the addition of 6,661 new employees would create the need for 6,661 new units of housing. This increased need for housing is not accounted for by the City. Consequently, the 4.11-6 Genentech Corporate Facilities Master EIR 4.11 Population, Employment, and Housing potential employment increase that would result from the proposed 2006 FMPU would result in direct and indirect growth that may not be accommodated by existing or proposed housing projections for the City. However, and as stated above, continued job growth in the City will promote a greater regional balance between jobs and housing. As a strategically located inner Bay Area community well served by all modes of transit?including air and rail, BART and ferry service in the near future?future employees that travel to and from the City will have varied means of reaching employment sites. Existing documents, such as the Economic Development Element of the General Plan, recognize that redevelopment and intensification of land uses within the City will be necessary to meet future demand. Further, the Economic Development Element also recognizes the anticipated increase in non-residential development and the resulting substantial increase in related employment, particularly within R&D establishments in the East of 101 Area, which is unsuitable for residential uses. Genentech serves both local and regional roles; the Genentech Campus is a major high- technology/biotechnology anchor in the East of 101 Area and due to its size, it also provides the region with a firm establishment in the biotechnology industry and its resulting economic benefits. Thus, while the increase in non-residential uses as proposed under the proposed project would further exacerbate the existing jobs-housing ratio within the City, existing City documents recognize the integral role that Genentech and its resulting services provide to the City and the region. Additionally, residential uses are not permitted in the East of 101 Area. Thus, the majority of additional housing demand that could be generated under buildout of the proposed project would be filled in surrounding communities. Although the City?s jobs-housing balance could worsen, because of Genentech?s strong economic presence, the significant increase in jobs would actually improve the overall regional jobs-housing balance. Further, although the jobs-housing balance is a noteworthy measure for land use planning purposes, the City does not have an adopted jobs-housing ratio goal. Therefore, because Genentech?s continued employment growth would serve to balance regional needs between jobs and housing, this impact is less than significant considered to be . Threshold Displace substantial numbers of existing housing, necessitating the construction of replacement housing elsewhere. Impact 4.11-2 Implementation of the proposed project would not displace existing housing, and would not necessitate the construction of replacement no impact. housing elsewhere. Therefore, there would be The MEIR Study Area is located in the East of 101 Area. According to the General Plan, the East of 101 Area, the traditional core of South San Francisco?s industry, was originally developed with meat packing and heavy manufacturing activities. In the post-war years the City converted previously unused marshlands into areas usable for industrial development, drastically reshaping the shoreline and attracting light industry to the City for the first time. Residential uses are not permitted in the East of 101 Area. As South San Francisco?s employment base, the East of 101 Area is expected to accommodate a major share 4.11-7 Genentech Corporate Facilities Master EIR Chapter 4 Environmental Analysis of South San Francisco?s new non-residential development. As no residential uses exist in the MEIR Study Area, implementation of the proposed project would not displace existing housing. Therefore, no impact there would be . Threshold Displace substantial numbers of people, necessitating the construction of replacement housing elsewhere. Impact 4.11-3 Implementation of the proposed project would not displace substantial numbers of people, and would not necessitate the construction of no impact. replacement housing elsewhere. Therefore, there would be No residential uses exist in the MEIR Study Area. Thus no residents would be displaced, and construction of replacement housing elsewhere would not be necessitated. Existing businesses in the proposed expanded Genentech R&D Overlay District could be displaced by Genentech. However, these employees would likely find other locations in the East of 101 Area. Therefore, displacement of existing businesses and associated employees would not necessitate the construction of replacement housing elsewhere as these potentially displaced employees could find employment in the East of 101 Area. no impact Therefore, there would be . 4.11.4References Association of Bay Area Governments, ABAG Housing Program, http://www.abag.ca.gov/planning/housingneeds/rhnd.html, Accessed 22 November, 2005. Dyett and Bhatia, City of South San Francisco, General Plan, Housing Element Background Report, adopted December 11, 2002. Sue Exline, Dyett and Bhatia memorandum to Mike Lappen, South San Francisco Planning Department, forwarded to EIP on November 21, 2005. 4.11-8 Genentech Corporate Facilities Master EIR